The Center for New Ideas has presented the results of a new study based on a survey of 29 experts. The paper analyzes probable scenarios, triggers, and key players in Belarus’s future change of power.
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The main conclusion of the study is that experts consider a transition of power in Belarus by 2040 to be almost inevitable (90%), though its most likely start will occur through a managed transfer of power from above (72%). At the same time, a managed start does not guarantee a controlled outcome.
The study establishes that:
- The main trigger for the transition is Alexander Lukashenka’s health condition (79%), as well as instability in Russia (38%);
- Real power in the first phase will most likely be gained by internal system actors—current officials (48%), Lukashenka’s family (21%), or security forces (siloviki) (17%);
- Belarusian society and elites currently display passivity: 69% of experts expect the elites to take a wait-and-see approach, while 55% believe society will accept the status quo.
The study indicates that Russia will constitute the primary external factor and will support any geopolitically acceptable candidate (66%). The West, in turn, has a high demand for change but does not yet demonstrate readiness to actively manage the process.
Experts highlight four main scenarios for how events could unfold:
- Authoritarian continuity — the baseline scenario of replacing the top leader without deep democratisation.
- Geopolitical hybrid — maneuvering by a segment of the elites between Moscow and the West.
- Window for democratisation — the best, yet unlikely scenario, requiring the weakening of the Russian Federation and the readiness of reformers.
- Freezing or loss of agency — the worst-case scenario featuring the deepening of Russian control.
Read the full study.
We have also prepared an experimental interactive model featuring a scenario tree for the transition.я